01Thresholds
Aerobic and anaerobic thresholds from heart rate variability
DFA-α1 0.75 → aerobic · 0.50 → anaerobic
A threshold isn’t a fixed number — it drifts with fitness, fatigue and heat. Read from beat-to-beat data across many sessions, so no single run defines your zones.
α1 1.0 · easy0.75 · aerobic0.50 · anaerobic
Rogers, Giles, Draper, Hoos & Gronwald (2021) · Frontiers in Physiology — Sempere-Ruiz et al. (2024) — Altini (2024)
Field note →02Recovery
Recovery state against your own baseline
lnRMSSD vs 7-day rolling baseline ± SWC
Last night’s HRV means little on its own. What matters is the deviation from your own rolling baseline — the smallest change worth acting on, not a red/green score.
Plews, Laursen, Stanley, Kilding & Buchheit (2013) · Sports Medicine — Esco & Flatt (2014) — Hopkins (2000)
Field note →03Load & Form
Fitness, fatigue and form from every session
CTL · ATL · TSB — impulse-response tradition
Fitness and fatigue are the same training seen on two timescales; their balance is your form. The acute:chronic injury ratio, though, is contested — so we read it as one signal, not a diagnosis.
Banister et al. (1975) — Gabbett (2016) · BJSM, with its documented limitations
04Intensity
Was your easy run actually easy?
~80/20 easy–hard · HR zones × DFA-α1
Most “easy” runs aren’t. Classifying a session’s true intensity against your own thresholds exposes the moderate-intensity rut that quietly stalls recreational runners.
Seiler (2010) · IJSPP — Kenneally, Casado & Santos-Concejero (2018) — Casado et al. (2023)
Field note →05Durability
How your physiology holds up deep into a run
Pw:HR decoupling · within-session Δα1
Two runners with identical fresh thresholds can diverge completely at hour three. Durability — resistance to drift deep into long efforts — is endurance’s fourth dimension, and its evidence is still being written.
Maunder et al. (2021) — Smyth et al. (2022) vs Hunter & Muniz-Pumares (2025) — Rothschild & Maunder (2025)
Field note →06Periodization
Structuring blocks that fit recreational reality
Block vs traditional — what transfers
Periodization has strong evidence in elites and thin evidence in amateurs. For most runners, consistency and a sane progression rate move fitness more than any block structure.
Rønnestad, Hansen & Ellefsen (2012) — Rønnestad et al. (2014) — Issurin (2008)
Field note →07Pacing
Race prediction that follows your fitness
VDOT → race-equivalent paces
Race predictions age. Recalibrated continuously from recent efforts and threshold estimates, your paces track the fitness you have now — not last season’s.
Daniels & Gilbert (1979) — Bakken (2020) on threshold-centered practice